Matt Harvey for Cy Young

Can it be possible, can the Cy Young come from the same team two years in a row, both squads with sub .500 records?

It certainly is possible, but at this point I’d say it’s unlikely. There’s a number of factors that are going against Harvey in pursuit of his first Cy Young.

1. The Mets won a Cy Young award last season with R.A. Dickey. And not only that, but he won it on a losing team. It’s hard to imagine the voters won’t take this point into consideration. A non-stat consideration, like the fact that…

2. He’s in his first full season. Generally, voters don’t like to give accolades to people who are unproven. Just look at Yasiel Puig. However, exceptional pitchers have won Cy Young awards before, with the Met’s Dwight Gooden counted as one of them. Harvey’s stats are good 9-4, 2.25 ERA in 25 starts, he’s struck out 187 while only walking 31 and opponents are batting .199 against him. But that doesn’t help the fact that…

3. He’s still not as good as Clayton Kershaw. This is the most important point Kershaw is 12-7 right now, not a whole lot better than Harvey record-wise, but voters have shown it’s much less about records than how you got to that point. But Kershaw currently sports a 1.80 ERA in 26 starts and he’s given up less hits per nine innings, which leads to a lower WHIP. Kershaw has five less strikeouts at the moment than Harvey. Kershaw also sits atop the league in many advanced stats, such as ERA+ and Win Probability Added on Baseball-Reference.com. However, these are only slight leads, and a downturn by Kershaw plus Harvey pitching the same as he has all season could equalize the stats or give Harvey the lead. However…

4. He’s on an innings limit. The fact that he won’t pitch a full season will also hurt. He won’t have as many opportunities to equal Kershaw’s numbers and I’d believe voters would hold not having a full season of games against him. That also doesn’t take into account any drop off by Harvey due to fatigue from hi slongest season yet. Kershaw pitching well down the stretch for a division leader, while Harvey sits on the bench? Tell me, which makes a better impression with you?

Again, it’s not impossible that Harvey wins it, in fact I’m pretty sure he’ll garner a few of the first place votes. However, without a strong third pitcher (Patrick Corbin of Arizona and Adam Wainwright of St. Louis are in the running) to draw off votes for Kershaw, Harvey will likely finish in the top 3. Not too bad for a full season.

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